5 Things the Future Holds, According to the World's Most Elite SuperforecastersWhat'll happen to the price of advertising? Will more female founders get funded? We had Good Judgment's superforecasters answer these questions and more.
ByLiz Brody•
This story appears in theDecember 2021issue of雷竞技手机版.Subscribe »
You may have readour storyabout theforecastingcompanyGood Judgmentand its worldwide team of superforecasters. Now it's time to put them to the test.
Their crystal ball is pretty fancy, based on science and a system that has helped them outpredictcompetitorsfor 10 years. But posing questions to them requires finesse. That's because in the land of forecasting, language really matters.
Good Judgment's CEO, Warren Hatch, remembers the time his team was asked,Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile?"As it turned out, Kim Jong Il pressed the button and it exploded on the pad," he says. "So did it launch? Well, if you're a policy or political analyst looking for attempts, yeah. If you're a defense analyst looking for capability, it did not. So getting the question right, so that you're forecasting the same thing, is critical."
